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| Russell 2000 weekly and monthly charts |
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| S&P 500 weekly and monthly charts |
I did some analysis on the daily charts that I posted on stocktwits and those charts are very much valid. But here are the larger term charts and I posted the S&P as well because I think that chart is more important for the time being. Even though the index with 1500 more stocks that even tend to be more risky than S&P stocks is outperforming, the S&P still needs to be in tandem with the Russell. The Dow as well but the Dow chart looks exactly like the S&P. The Russell has actually fired back off blue on both of the triggers while S&P is still magenta. Along with everything I posted in the daily charts on stocktwits, the triggers need to fire back off blue on the S&P on the weekly chart and need to stay blue on the daily. The divergence is still on the Russell weekly chart too, it can be broken or it can be a third hump in the divergence. You can eyeball the trend-line that needs to be broken for it to be a failed divergence so that will take a few weeks to play out. Including the daily analysis posted on stocktwits that is about all that needs to be said on that. Also you can click on any of these charts and blow them up larger in case you didnt know.
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| Crude oil weekly and monthly charts |
Well here it is, the week Ive been waiting on for months. So what now? A pullback to the $100 mark to confirm the breakout would be great, or at least in the $100 area give or take $1. I dont think its a coincidence it did this in the first week of a new month. I think that happened so it can have time to consolidate the breakout and still close at the highs of the month. The triggers are firing on all cylinders with huge spikes. Everything is playing out exactly right so far especially with people being in denial and going short. I posted a really interesting blog including a crude-S&P ratio chart and I think you should take a look at that after this if you havent already. Even one red bar or two on the weekly chart would be good enough consolidation to confirm the breakout. Thats about all there is to say here, everything is looking good so far.
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| Gold weekly and monthly charts |
Gold is still looking pretty bearish. Nothing has changed as far as any of the indicators or any changes in price action. 1170-1160 is still an important support level to hold and I still think this is going to take months of consolidation to fix if it is going to be fixed so any bottom callers out there are just dreaming. This is going to take 6 months or more for a sustainable rally unless a V shape bottom gets put in but I dont think that is likely. On the stochastic there is a W shape pattern which is usually a buy signal but it needs an uptrend for that be to a buy so it could just be signaling a pullback or a consolidation. But it needs to get above the fast moving averages before any slow down is likely, even on the daily chart a sell signal just fired off perfectly but has already played out. That still means the sellers are selling though. So the bear market continues for now.
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| 10 year note weekly and monthly chart |
I just wanted to post this chart because I think it is interesting how the bonds are tanking with gold. Two solid safe havens that have been rising for quite a while. The bonds are sitting at a support line and you can see looking at the monthly chart where the next support is if this one breaks. It is looking very similar to the gold chart in terms of the triggers. Monthly slow trigger is rounding off and fast has gone negative. Weekly slow trigger is negative and falling along with the fast. I think this is why the dollar is spiking because its the only safe haven left and if the central banks can cause the dollar to rally that will decrease the inflation everyone knows exists and put less pressure on the fed to taper. That is the last thing the fed wants to do because they know the consequences of taking the drugs away from drug addicts. I just wanted to throw this chart in here and if it keeps being an interesting one I will keep it in the weekly recaps.
