I wanted to start this recap off by explaining why I changed my charts up. On my daily charts all I did was remove the fast avgs and the key reversal dots I had. The key reversal dots were just completely useless, and the fast avgs were just a representation of something that I could see just fine without them. In context with everything else I use on the daily charts, it just became clutter. I use just pure price action a lot as well in my analysis, and this allows me to see the candles easier when going through the multiple time frames. Now that is not to discount them for people who may need more structure on the price to train your mind how price action works, it’s just that I don’t need them. On my intraday charts, I pretty much stripped everything but the 20ema and my indicators. I did this because price on an intraday basis is not as rational as on a daily basis and I can clearly identify a trend with just a 20ema and trade it the same way I would with everything else on the charts. The indicators I use are as much of a crutch as I need while managing a position. Most of the time the only thing that I’m watching across the multiple time frames is the relationship between the candles and the 20ema, along with an understanding of trends, momentum, and price action of course so it’s really not that big of a change to me. I know what my signals are, I know what my confirmation is, and I know how I am going to be managing my trades so that is all I need. Again though for a trader learning trends, being more conservative, and learning what the highest probability environment looks like, this is a great tool to have the channel and fast avgs on intraday charts. Below is just a screenshot of what my setup now looks like. You can’t see my daily, weekly, and monthly pivot points but they are still there.

Stock Index Futures:

Russell 2000 Chart -- S&P 500 Chart

Is it a bubble yet? There was hardly any pullback and it is already trying to go again. At some point this stops being a bull market and becomes a bubble. That point is when we are printing monthly bars like July just did and they continue to be that large and get even larger. The QE bubble? Seems logical. Anyway, I am sure I mentioned last weeks weekly bar was a buy signal and it was bought. So buyers are still buying and there are no signs of distribution that haven’t already been broken above. Also note that the Russell is above yearly R3 at 1036 and everything is still bullish. The only reason to sell is to take profits. There really isn’t much to update about at this point in the stock index futures. Buyers are buying, still. Internals are far from confirming this by the way, but those aren’t presenting a serious problem at this point.

Crude Oil:

Crude Oil Chart

I know for sure I mentioned last week that weekly candle was a buy signal. It was bought. So just as the stock index futures, buyers are buying. Also the 103-104 support area held perfectly. This isn’t magic, these were plotted when crude was around $101. I posted a chart on stock twits right when I plotted them if you want to go look at that. I will get around to doing that blog on those. Anyway, a pullback to the daily 20ema wouldn’t surprise me. At that point I’d like to see it hold, maybe give some accumulation signals on a lower time frame as discussed in Using Multiple Time Frames for Day and Swing Trading educational piece I did. That $109 area keeps printing distribution, so people are selling into that level. Buyers are going to have to build up strength to break through it if they want to keep this train rolling. The chart is still bullish though, that V shape on the daily isn’t a sign of weakness. Furthermore, technically that daily candle is a buy signal. Weekly and monthly charts are still looking great, nothing changed there.

Gold:

Gold Chart

The first thing I’ll say here is that monthly bar is a pure and simple sell signal. Last weeks sell signal was sold at first until the bulls came in Friday and really tore it up on the job numbers. Bulls gave a good accumulation bar on Friday to work with, but gold is still a very “iffy” situation. No real clear direction now that buyers have started to come in but sellers are still in control. In the middle of the week I checked the weekly slow trigger and it had turned green, but sellers caused it to stay red. Monthly chart shows bears clearly in control with $1145 as a reasonable target, while the weekly chart is in a downtrend with a red slow trigger giving credit to sellers below last weeks low, and the daily chart got trapped in a key daily resistance level while still in a downtrend. So, $1385 can be a reasonable target above $1340 key resistance level and below Friday’s accumulation bar there is nothing but air and could even see new lows.

Treasuries:

10 Year Note Chart

Well, 10 year notes are definitely trying to build a bottom or something like that. The daily chart just looks heavy to me. But, I can’t argue with the weekly or monthly charts showing buyers. So what I will say about this is, below 125 is bearish territory. Even though weekly and monthly (mainly weekly) price action is showing buyers, the indicators are showing sellers. I did mention before that we could start to see the bouncing effect here causing a huge roll over in the bond market. If they popped up to the 129 level on the weekly chart that would be smacking right into two important resistance levels and on top of the the daily charts are already showing a strong downtrend. You can read more about the bouncing effect here. It is very real, and this weekly chart is a perfect candidate for that to happen. The only trades I would be taking here is below 125 on a swing trade basis, and even then I would need to see a weekly bar close below there. Bond managers are fooling themselves if they don’t believe the path of least resistance is to the downside.

Market Internals:

Market Internals Chart

We can all see the divergences loud and clear. My worry is when they get below the midpoint (50% & 0 lines) and stay there. For now they are holding up and that is why I said they aren’t posing a problem. But, one more sell off and these guys will be below the midpoint and that means big trouble for the markets. Especially a very quick, rapid, selloff. Even one or two days of that kind of price action could bury these indicators.

Economic Releases: