|
|
|
10-26-14 Trade Plan
The market did exactly what I didn't think it was going to do, a strong V shape reversal back to the highs. At first there were not many opportunities being triggered but towards the end of the week things were starting to be put in motion. This part of the move that we've already seen is a part I didn't mind missing at all. To have participated in that move you would have had to be picking at a bottom after a daily chart lower low looking for a short term intraday trend (15m it ended up being) to hold and carry the market against the bigger trends, and as beautiful as the reversal ended up being that just isn't my style and I would come at it the same way if it were to happen again.
10-19-14 Trade Plan
With lower highs and lows the market did what it does best in downtrends, make bigger moves lower than it does higher. The volatility is bringing back a lot of very short term opportunities in both price directions and the actual volatility of the options. Getting in some puts or any long IV/short delta option positions before a nice one or two day decline can really pay off especially if you have the timing required to trade the weekly cycles. Bonds and volatility ETFs were trading great this week and after a few weeks of lack of opportunity with long stock positions it was good to change focus and make money with it.
In my opinion we are past the point of V shape straight back up reversal, this is going to take at least a month or two of chop and consolidation if we are going to reverse back up. Which would make sense as the market waits on the only fundamental piece of information it cares about, whether or not we see more QE. That consolidation could happen at these levels or it could happen 10% lower, as long as you are following major swing points and trend you know which direction to expect the big moves and where to define your risk if you want to trade it.
In my opinion we are past the point of V shape straight back up reversal, this is going to take at least a month or two of chop and consolidation if we are going to reverse back up. Which would make sense as the market waits on the only fundamental piece of information it cares about, whether or not we see more QE. That consolidation could happen at these levels or it could happen 10% lower, as long as you are following major swing points and trend you know which direction to expect the big moves and where to define your risk if you want to trade it.
|
|
 |
10-12-14 Trade Plan
The bears prevented any higher highs/lows and kept the selling going with a 130m down trend. More volatility is here and that requires different trading styles than riding up trends or none at all. I like doing end of day index trades where risk reward is good for a one or two day trade. Also trading bonds, oil, gold, volatility ETFs, even some shorts if there's a good setup in the liquid stocks I trade. I'm always weary of pulling out this style of trading because it seems like when I do or think about doing it the indices reverse and it's time to get long stocks. But it does exist, and with QE ending, IWM breaking down in a serious way, nearly all bullish setups failing, it's time to put that card on the table.
 |
 |
 |
10-05-14 Trade Plan
What we have in the indices is intraday down trends going against the daily uptrend and I prefer to have both in alignment for a good uptrend. Even with the strong V shape reversal we saw on Thursday and Friday, it is still a lower high after a lower low. Bulls could do one of two things if they are taking control from here, take out 9/30 high which would make a higher high and give lots of room for higher low or put in a higher swing low above the 10/2 swing point. If bears are still in control they will keep the pattern of lower highs and lows.
|
|
|