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05-31-15 Trade Plan
Indices made a lot of noise this week without making any progress or losing any ground. Given the two sided market conditions we have been in this is not surprising. While the NASDAQ spent the week trying to hold near highs, the Russell was compressing in a small wedge using last week's high and this week's low. Looking at this 130m chart of the NASDAQ buyers may have something going for them. They have the low put in this week with the 130m trend, giving the potential to hold above that low, consolidate, and break to new highs with an intraday trend (a historically strong and long lasting one as well). Given that we are at highs and still up 6% on the year, I have to stay long side biased in the index until sellers can make a trend happen.
05-24-15 Trade Plan
Equity markets had a decent week with the Russell starting out on a nice move higher into the $125 resistance area. NASDAQ moving slightly higher into the previous daily high, and the S&P making new all time highs. The two sided market conditions have not gone anywhere. Everyday my stock list was half red and half green (watch list as well) and that's not the same market conditions that buyers used to create for the huge moves higher. It tells me that even with the bull moves we made this week, the market is still trading in the same conditions we have been for 6 months now. And in these conditions, you can't just ignore the fact that all we've done is made a move higher into resistance levels in the NASDAQ and on the Russell.
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05-17-15 Trade Plan
Buyers ended the week on a good note, closing weekly hammer candles near the highs. During the week buyers did a much better job of holding and triggering stocks, which was a nice change up from the choppy markets we have been in all year. The Russell 2000 gave a clear level ($123.25-$123.50) for buyers to get above and hold higher highs and lows to reverse the intraday trend, so far they have been successful. That will be important next week to watch for continuation. The NASDAQ isn't as black and white as the Russell but $110 is still the level I'll be watching for buyers to get through. S&P and Dow Jones need an intraday trend to hold into all time highs. If we don't get any follow through or just fail altogether there is nothing to trade since sellers have nothing set up.
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05-10-15 Trade Plan
Once again NASDAQ had a pretty erratic week moving lower against a daily uptrend with no real trend in the swing points, finishing the week with a large gap up. We are still in a two sided choppy market. These aren't conditions I'm trying to be very active in, but with that said I am staying prepared and on the watch for something to happen either long or short. The Dow Jones was in a position where sellers had a real shot at forming an intraday trend below break even, but they were too weak to make it happen and the gap up on Friday completely negated that potential situation. Next week I'll be watching the gap low support to see if bulls want to do something with that and maybe help get the rest of the market in shape.
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05-03-15 Trade Plan
NASDAQ failed to hold the gap low/$110 and that told me this wasn't a typical breakout as most of the time in recent history buyers would've held the relevant support with ease and continued. Price moving lower from there wasn't something I was interested in trading as we still had intraday and daily uptrends, so this entire week ended up being one of sitting back doing nothing as far as new positions were concerned in equities. Buyers still have a daily trend to work with in the NASDAQ while the Russell is coming back into $120/YTD break even support area. So far buyers are stepping in protecting these areas, and the weekly charts are still looking good.
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04-26-15 Trade Plan
The NASDAQ had a great week after reclaiming the intraday trends and making new highs. I wanted to share this chart that goes through the simple analysis I was doing during this week -- NASDAQ 65m chart. In my opinion it's a great learning opportunity for intraday trend analysis. Looking back we can see that gap down from Friday (4/17) was erased Monday (4/20) and Tuesday (4/21) as price attempted to reclaim the 65m trend with an equal high. At that point I considered that lower low from Friday (4/17) to be a shakeout and buyers needed a higher low to work with along the rising 65m trend to regain control. That is what we saw before the large move higher (4/22). To keep this in context, all of this was happening above YTD break even, above daily support areas, and with a rising 50 day average. To take it one step further, in a weekly bull market. While this was happening there were some great looking long setups to trade and that's what I was doing all week. All of this was tweeted out while it was happening.
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04-19-15 Trade Plan
NASDAQ was doing a good job holding the 30m trend until the gap down we saw Friday. This gap down showed me that the range bound market is still in effect and buy low sell high is still working for my time frame. Something else I noticed during this week is that the strongest intraday trends are happening in stocks that are trying to form some kind of bottom or come out of a sideways range. Since I trade intraday trends I can't ignore that just because the daily charts are not in a strong uptrend. If the market is dictating that's where I need to be for my time frame then I'm going to listen to it and make my trades there. Also trading this way doesn't violate any of my rules, it's just different from what has been working for a long time. I care about where the big moves are happening. For a while that has been very strong up trends in growth stocks but it does feel like the market is starting to look elsewhere for new candidates, so I can't ignore that like I could when growth was going insane.
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04-12-15 Trade Plan
After price was unable to put in a lower low or go negative on the year, buyers retook control with a 30m trend that got above the previous swing high at $107. This intraday trend is aligned with the daily time frame and there are some stocks that are looking good to participate in a move higher. That is what you want to see when a possible trend is emerging otherwise it's just the index trying to rally with no back up or leadership.
This is a little off topic but I wanted to bring it up. Apparently last week's job report had a lot of people irrationally thinking that the bull market had ended, spreading fear, panic, day to day noise. I just wanted to show the mark of a bull market in my opinion. It's a rising 50 week average in the strongest index - QQQ weekly chart. The flash crash, the Greek riots, all that happened along a rising 50 week average. The last bull market through 2008? Same thing - SPY weekly chart. Well what about the bear markets? It's a declining 50 week average. SPY weekly chart 2008 crash. Just that simple filter of a rising/declining 50 week will let you know if a market environment is changing or not. Even the Russell through it's consolidation last year had a rising 50 week the entire time. Along with monitoring swing points, using multiple time frames, and managing risk appropriately you aren't going to be caught off guard with a bull market just ending over the weekend. Remember this is a 50 week average, not day, not intraday, week. The weekly chart always stays in the back of my mind no matter how short term I get, which is why if I'm looking for short term downside I'll give targets or expectations and looking for upside I don't because that is the state of the market right now. I know most of the readers here know this but for any one that needs perspective on this subject, there it is.
This is a little off topic but I wanted to bring it up. Apparently last week's job report had a lot of people irrationally thinking that the bull market had ended, spreading fear, panic, day to day noise. I just wanted to show the mark of a bull market in my opinion. It's a rising 50 week average in the strongest index - QQQ weekly chart. The flash crash, the Greek riots, all that happened along a rising 50 week average. The last bull market through 2008? Same thing - SPY weekly chart. Well what about the bear markets? It's a declining 50 week average. SPY weekly chart 2008 crash. Just that simple filter of a rising/declining 50 week will let you know if a market environment is changing or not. Even the Russell through it's consolidation last year had a rising 50 week the entire time. Along with monitoring swing points, using multiple time frames, and managing risk appropriately you aren't going to be caught off guard with a bull market just ending over the weekend. Remember this is a 50 week average, not day, not intraday, week. The weekly chart always stays in the back of my mind no matter how short term I get, which is why if I'm looking for short term downside I'll give targets or expectations and looking for upside I don't because that is the state of the market right now. I know most of the readers here know this but for any one that needs perspective on this subject, there it is.
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04-05-15 Trade Plan
Not much has changed since the post last weekend. Russell 2000 is still holding higher highs and lows along a 130m trend. The NASDAQ and S&P have lower highs, equal lows, and a rising 50 day average. It's hard to get overly bearish if bears can't get a lower low and the Russell is still moving higher. One thing the bears have going for them is lower highs, equal lows and that typically means the force is building against the support area and will eventually break. Well that also works in reverse too if every single time bears try to break that area and can't, buyers will eventually take the reigns and break the previous high in an attempt to get a trend going. When in doubt just follow the swing points and relevant trend for your time frame.
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03-29-15 Trade Plan
After the declines we saw last week, the NASDAQ is still hanging onto the previous daily swing low which is about 1.5% above YTD break even. The 50 day average is rising and the Russell 2000 is still leading with higher highs and lows, also with a rising 50 day. If anything is going to pull this market back up to make new highs it will be the Russell 2000, because this is the leader with the cleanest up trend right now.
The flip side, or the weak point in the indices is the S&P. The previous high we just put in was not equal like NASDAQ or higher like Russell, it was lower. Now price is trying to hang onto the previous low, which makes a lower high & equal low. One good close below $204 in the SPY would put in a pattern of lower highs and lows; and put it in negative YTD performance. This isn't the end of the world though, just means market isn't ready for more buying but at the same time don't be complacent. Just follow the price and the trend.
The flip side, or the weak point in the indices is the S&P. The previous high we just put in was not equal like NASDAQ or higher like Russell, it was lower. Now price is trying to hang onto the previous low, which makes a lower high & equal low. One good close below $204 in the SPY would put in a pattern of lower highs and lows; and put it in negative YTD performance. This isn't the end of the world though, just means market isn't ready for more buying but at the same time don't be complacent. Just follow the price and the trend.
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03-22-15 Watchlist Analysis
03-22-15 Trade Plan
With the Russell 2000 leading, we saw the daily chart higher low supported across the indices and that led to a nice rally. Last week I talked about how the longer intraday trends (130m, 65m) were broken but still had a very nice daily chart up trend that buyers could support. Since the longer intraday trends couldn't be used to track price efficiently, it made sense if buyers were going to continue the daily up trend it would be a shorter term trend (30m, 15m) to carry the markets higher and that's what we saw.
Maybe the fed had something to do with it or maybe that's just what price wanted to do anyway. At the end of the day, back testing a daily chart I couldn't tell you where a fed meeting was but I can tell you the trend and the price. Same thing with earnings announcements conveniently placed in a nice uptrend, "big upside surprise" they call it...
Maybe the fed had something to do with it or maybe that's just what price wanted to do anyway. At the end of the day, back testing a daily chart I couldn't tell you where a fed meeting was but I can tell you the trend and the price. Same thing with earnings announcements conveniently placed in a nice uptrend, "big upside surprise" they call it...
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03-15-15 Trade Plan
After breaking into no man's land last Friday and seeing a lower high the sellers retained control and pushed prices lower. The Russell 2000 is where some real strength is being found after buyers supported price above YTD break even, a rising 50 day average, and $120 round number support. We now have a higher low to reference at that level and it wouldn't take much to see new highs to continue the daily uptrend. The potential for the NASDAQ to pass the torch to the Russell and bring out new leadership is present right now so that is something I'll be watching for swing trading.
NASDAQ still has some room below before testing break even for the year and we don't have any new swing lows to look at for right now as we do in the Russell. $105 is a nice round number I'll be watching for buyers to support. The longer intraday trends (130m, 65m) were broken so that leaves me focusing more on a daily chart reversal to be played on a shorter term intraday trend (30m, 15m) if buyers get some force behind them. Other than something like that happening I will continue to focus on day trading the volatility present in the indices.
NASDAQ still has some room below before testing break even for the year and we don't have any new swing lows to look at for right now as we do in the Russell. $105 is a nice round number I'll be watching for buyers to support. The longer intraday trends (130m, 65m) were broken so that leaves me focusing more on a daily chart reversal to be played on a shorter term intraday trend (30m, 15m) if buyers get some force behind them. Other than something like that happening I will continue to focus on day trading the volatility present in the indices.
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03-08-15 Trade Plan
Starting on Monday, we had a break out that proved to be a head fake when the swing low was broken the following day. This was a break out that I talked about last weekend too, but the swing low couldn't be supported. The next few days we chopped in between the breakout support/resistance and the immediate support zone around $108. Then Friday sellers took price below the support zone and got some momentum behind them. That leaves us where we are now, in no man's land under the $108 area. Here is a visual on that: 30m NASDAQ chart
Why is it no mans land? Because on the daily chart the last swing low that was put in was way back at $100 support and the last swing point was a higher high in the long term uptrend. That means bulls have room technically all the way back to $100 to put in a swing low and continue the uptrend. We don't know where that will be we only know how the swing points are trending. The higher they can put in a low the stronger they are, and that's when I look for a potential support level they may want to step in at. Currently that's the previous break out area around $106. So from $108 to $106 even down to $103 break even area is no man's land because the ball is in the bulls court long term but sellers are in control on the intraday time frames.
Why is it no mans land? Because on the daily chart the last swing low that was put in was way back at $100 support and the last swing point was a higher high in the long term uptrend. That means bulls have room technically all the way back to $100 to put in a swing low and continue the uptrend. We don't know where that will be we only know how the swing points are trending. The higher they can put in a low the stronger they are, and that's when I look for a potential support level they may want to step in at. Currently that's the previous break out area around $106. So from $108 to $106 even down to $103 break even area is no man's land because the ball is in the bulls court long term but sellers are in control on the intraday time frames.
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03-01-05 Watchlist Analysis
Opportunity: Holding swing points along 65m trend
03-01-15 Trade Plan
It was a pretty slow week in the indices with only a few names participating at a time. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are still holding their intraday trends for the time being. Russell still has support from $120 to break even area and the NASDAQ has $106 area support. These are very generous support areas for buyers, meaning they have plenty of room to step in between where we are trading now and the support. A test of these support levels would break the intraday trends but if buyers can hold control above the supports then we may be set up for a new run. That's what I'm looking at for the downside potential, upside potential would just be continuing to hold the trends.
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02-22-15 Watchlist Analysis
Opportunity: Selling some premium while IV is still high. I prefer using defined risk spreads especially while sellers still have the upper hand
02-22-15 Trade Plan
The markets closed on another great note this week as indices continue to allow for an environment where stocks can rally with the wind at their back. Even the NASDAQ itself has been a fantastic trade holding all the swing points since the entry opportunity around $103-104. During these times is when I am looking for great risk/reward long side trades during trends in individual stocks, so unless there is a fresh trade to take in the indices I have all the information I need out of it for right now.
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02-15-15 Watchlist Analysis
Getting right into it...
TLT: Bonds are still in an interesting spot coming back into break even on the year with the previous low back near $124. I think there will be buyers stepping back in from here to break even, and it's something I'll be looking to play on the first bounce.
Opportunity: Reversing intraday trend above YTD break even to continue bigger picture up trend.
Opportunity: Reversing intraday trend above YTD break even to continue bigger picture up trend.
02-15-15 Trade Plan
Markets had a great week finally after a long wait from people like me. As I was saying last week the bulls needed to hold that previous supply area then get back above break even for the year to be in a good position for a new leg up. That's exactly what we saw so clearly on Tuesday when it gapped above break even, tested it multiple times intraday, then went on to make a higher high and trigger many stocks.
Let's take a step back for a second though. Have a look at this NASDAQ weekly chart. The consolidation we just went through was one of the best resting periods we have had throughout this entire bull market (starting from 2013). Since we took out the highs, it is now a higher low in the uptrend. Now have a look at this view of the same weekly chart. We are 10% away from all time highs in the NASDAQ, every other index made this milestone a long time ago. I don't think the leading index is going to give up 10% shy of all time highs. One more chart I want to share right here - Russell 2000 weekly. This is just an absolutely beautiful accumulation pattern, I couldn't say this before since bulls weren't breaking out of it or holding a trend above $120 but now that they are starting to you have to take the whole context into account. To finish this paragraph I'll say that not a soul knows what kind of year 2015 will be, but we can take a look at the longer term charts and see evidence of where we are. For right now all I'm seeing is accumulation on the weekly charts and I wanted to share that with you all.
Let's take a step back for a second though. Have a look at this NASDAQ weekly chart. The consolidation we just went through was one of the best resting periods we have had throughout this entire bull market (starting from 2013). Since we took out the highs, it is now a higher low in the uptrend. Now have a look at this view of the same weekly chart. We are 10% away from all time highs in the NASDAQ, every other index made this milestone a long time ago. I don't think the leading index is going to give up 10% shy of all time highs. One more chart I want to share right here - Russell 2000 weekly. This is just an absolutely beautiful accumulation pattern, I couldn't say this before since bulls weren't breaking out of it or holding a trend above $120 but now that they are starting to you have to take the whole context into account. To finish this paragraph I'll say that not a soul knows what kind of year 2015 will be, but we can take a look at the longer term charts and see evidence of where we are. For right now all I'm seeing is accumulation on the weekly charts and I wanted to share that with you all.
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