03-29-15 Trade Plan

After the declines we saw last week, the NASDAQ is still hanging onto the previous daily swing low which is about 1.5% above YTD break even.  The 50 day average is rising and the Russell 2000 is still leading with higher highs and lows, also with a rising 50 day.  If anything is going to pull this market back up to make new highs it will be the Russell 2000, because this is the leader with the cleanest up trend right now.

The flip side, or the weak point in the indices is the S&P.  The previous high we just put in was not equal like NASDAQ or higher like Russell, it was lower.  Now price is trying to hang onto the previous low, which makes a lower high & equal low.  One good close below $204 in the SPY would put in a pattern of lower highs and lows; and put it in negative YTD performance.  This isn't the end of the world though, just means market isn't ready for more buying but at the same time don't be complacent.  Just follow the price and the trend.

03-22-15 Watchlist Analysis

TLT: Bonds did a fake out below the YTD break even and now getting back above the previous high/$130 resistance/rising 50 day.  Right now using a 30m trend with the indices, also has 130m trend swinging back around

03-22-15 Trade Plan

With the Russell 2000 leading, we saw the daily chart higher low supported across the indices and that led to a nice rally.  Last week I talked about how the longer intraday trends (130m, 65m) were broken but still had a very nice daily chart up trend that buyers could support.  Since the longer intraday trends couldn't be used to track price efficiently, it made sense if buyers were going to continue the daily up trend it would be a shorter term trend (30m, 15m) to carry the markets higher and that's what we saw.

Maybe the fed had something to do with it or maybe that's just what price wanted to do anyway.  At the end of the day, back testing a daily chart I couldn't tell you where a fed meeting was but I can tell you the trend and the price.  Same thing with earnings announcements conveniently placed in a nice uptrend, "big upside surprise" they call it...

03-15-15 Trade Plan

After breaking into no man's land last Friday and seeing a lower high the sellers retained control and pushed prices lower.  The Russell 2000 is where some real strength is being found after buyers supported price above YTD break even, a rising 50 day average, and $120 round number support.  We now have a higher low to reference at that level and it wouldn't take much to see new highs to continue the daily uptrend.  The potential for the NASDAQ to pass the torch to the Russell and bring out new leadership is present right now so that is something I'll be watching for swing trading.

NASDAQ still has some room below before testing break even for the year and we don't have any new swing lows to look at for right now as we do in the Russell.  $105 is a nice round number I'll be watching for buyers to support.  The longer intraday trends (130m, 65m) were broken so that leaves me focusing more on a daily chart reversal to be played on a shorter term intraday trend (30m, 15m) if buyers get some force behind them.  Other than something like that happening I will continue to focus on day trading the volatility present in the indices.

03-08-15 Trade Plan

Starting on Monday, we had a break out that proved to be a head fake when the swing low was broken the following day.  This was a break out that I talked about last weekend too, but the swing low couldn't be supported.  The next few days we chopped in between the breakout support/resistance and the immediate support zone around $108.  Then Friday sellers took price below the support zone and got some momentum behind them.  That leaves us where we are now, in no man's land under the $108 area.  Here is a visual on that: 30m NASDAQ chart

Why is it no mans land?  Because on the daily chart the last swing low that was put in was way back at $100 support and the last swing point was a higher high in the long term uptrend.  That means bulls have room technically all the way back to $100 to put in a swing low and continue the uptrend.  We don't know where that will be we only know how the swing points are trending.  The higher they can put in a low the stronger they are, and that's when I look for a potential support level they may want to step in at.  Currently that's the previous break out area around $106.  So from $108 to $106 even down to $103 break even area is no man's land because the ball is in the bulls court long term but sellers are in control on the intraday time frames.