11-30-14 Trade Plan

It's a great time to know how to follow trends.  Just look at the dollar, oil, gold, stocks all holding strong trends.  Oil falling out of bed was not random, it has been in a strong downtrend (objectively measured by the 65m time frame) for 4 months now.  Some call it capitulation or reaction to whatever news came out, I call it still in a downtrend.  Nothing has changed, until oil breaks it's 65m trend with in tact swing points there is a downtrend.  Same with bonds, the daily chart has been the backbone trend for this all year long.  Every intraday trend that got started had the daily chart behind it with higher highs and lows and a rising 50 day moving average, nothing has changed there and now we see a new intraday trend getting started.  Surprising right?

The point is a) don't fight trends b) have an objective measuring system c) keep it simple.

11-23-14 Trade Plan

Once again the markets held the up trends.  The only market having a bit of trouble is the Russell 2000 as usual but it is holding above the key support level at $115.  The others are all holding in a consistent 30 minute time frame trend with higher highs and lows.  There is just no arguing with it, also we still have fresh setups triggering with a good environment for stocks.  This slow grind higher through November in the indices has been the rising tide for stock setups and it continues for now.

11-16-14 Trade Plan

The markets had another week of up trending and stocks continue to push higher.  Specifically the NASDAQ is moving higher with the S&P and Russell having a week of consolidation.  We are still in a good environment for stock setups and still in a place of pushing winners and taking new signals as they come.  Like I said a few weeks ago this whole rally has been triggering lower time frame trends (which means quicker, more powerful trends) and they have been sustaining longer than most expect.

This is one of the reasons why I believe finding the time frame the trend has been/is being established on and just following the swing points is so effective.  It takes away any analytical emotion or uncertainty that may arise and leaves it up to you to either follow your rules or not, if that makes any sense.  That also includes removing any "fun" you may have trying to put the puzzle together with trend lines, fibs, overlays, chart patterns etc. and leaves you with much more consistency in my opinion.

11-09-14 Trade Plan

The market had a tight consolidation this week while stocks in good up trends continued higher.  Tuesday the NASDAQ and Russell put in a swing low against the 30 minute trend and it ended up being the holding point for the consolidation that took place.  Not putting in lower highs and lows allowed for stocks to continue to trend and trigger moves higher.  The S&P was steadily moving higher during the consolidation period in the NASDAQ and that likely prompted some strength in individual names as well.

11-02-14 Trade Plan

The 15 minute trend is still carrying this market with ease and that is typical in most of the sharp reversals we have seen during this 2 year rally.  The only index entries that you could have taken is against the 15 minute trend using one of the higher swing lows as a stop.  However this action in the indices is setting a good environment for stocks which is allowing more setups to trigger and actually follow through.  Whether or not the index is extended really doesn't matter, it's more important to be looking at setups individually.  Stocks can still trigger and have great trends while the index is just consolidating or even pulling back slightly.