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Starting out with the S&P, first thing that catches the eye is the fact that we are smacking into ATH resistance. The good news is that there is/will be a lot of potential support around $1800-$1810 area if we start selling off any. Something I think a lot of people are overlooking is the S&P weekly chart which is why I thought I should bring it up here. There is nothing bearish at all about that chart, in fact it puts the probabilities of new highs in favor. Bonds ended up breaking below that doji candle I was talking about last week and right now they are back at that level and printed a distribution bar on Friday. I would expect bonds to come down to the 50 SMA (130'26 right now) since any rallies would be smacking into that declining trend line. If it wants to break that trend, it needs a good base to rally from first in my opinion. Gold had a very nice week after breaking out of that band of resistance and is now approaching the almighty declining 200 SMA. Given that the 200 on the daily is right around the same spot as the 50 on the weekly, I would expect some type of rest since this is the first test of both of these averages in a while. Good news is that the $1280-$1270 band of support/resistance can still provide very strong support if it needs to.
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The percent of stocks above 200 SMA got back inside the wedge (which is what I was looking for if bulls were taking control), and the percent above 50 SMA bounced very nicely off of the lower end of it's range (which was expected). VIX is indicating that fear in this market is more like a panic attack that tends to fade away, which is exactly what happened this time. Internals are not indicating anything threatening. I'd prefer to see that percent above 200 stay inside that wedge or break to the upside as well.
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MSFT - I like this if it can pull back and hold above $37 & 50 SMA
FB - Active momentum trade.. been struggling to get entry but I like it above 10 SMA
EBAY - Breakout above $55 could lead to great momentum breakout trade
SCTY - Nice base, I like it above $70.. earnings are soon
TSL - If this wedge continues it could lead to very nice breakout.. risk under $13 for now
FFIV - Active momentum trade.. above 10 SMA it remains active
GRMN - Nice wedge being broken out of right now.. 50 SMA last barrier to breakout
YELP - Possible momentum trade gearing up.. pay attention to the 10 SMA as a guide
WDC - Real nice structure coming off 50 SMA
CMG - If $540 holds this could be a gap up continuation trade
CVS - Another potential gap up continuation if $68 holds
GPS - Once again a potential gap up continuation trade if the low ($41.32) holds
CBS - One more potential gap up continuation trade if the low ($63.43) holds
LEN - Homebuilders looking good.. like this name above $40
PHM - Holding 50 SMA.. looks good above $19.5
DHI - Looking good above $23 (gap up continuation trade)
LVS - Good structure here.. looking for entries above 50 SMA
MYL - Holding up well.. IV rank nearing 100% heading into earnings
DAL - Looks good if the 10 SMA can continue to scoop up the price action and hold it
X - Buyers coming in on this dip.. looking for 10 SMA to continue to hold the price action
SLB - Breakout above $91
DOW - Good momentum here.. watching 10 SMA as a guide
Some good looking setups for next week. If you missed my post on going with the flow in this market that I posted yesterday check it out right here: A Quick Rant About This Market. I got some good feedback on it and I appreciate all of you out there. I'm on StockTwits and Twitter @M5amhan if you want to follow me for updates on these setups and fresh ones as they appear.
Trade well,
-Michael
