This article is what they pass as helpful information for retail traders and investors. I want to take just a second to look through this one with some added logic and thought that the WSJ didn't have time for.
An early pop Thursday morning faded quickly, as investors continue to weigh an improving economy against the potential implications of future Federal Reserve policy. Geopolitical turmoil in Russia and Ukraine is also hindering the market; ECB President Mario Draghi warned about the economic risks Russia’s sanctions could have on Europe’s economic recovery.People take this stuff seriously. What they are doing with this paragraph filled with politics and hearsay is creating a narrative. They want you to think this is what is important for you to be successful, that you need to know the ins and outs of Mario Draghi and geopolitical turmoil to make big bold predictions and be successful based on them. Objective market participants are not "continuing to weigh an improving economy against potential implications of future Federal Reserve policy". They have a personalized process they follow day in and day out. That is a sentence filled with uncertainty, subjectivity, and wishy washy non sense. Exactly what you don't need to be successful.
Jeffrey Saut, chief market strategist at Raymond James, went on the record last month calling for a 10% to 12% summer swoon in stocks. So far, the S&P 500 has lost about 4% from its record high.
"Went on the record last month calling for a..." This is how media operates. They get 100 people to go 'on the record' with 100 different bold predictions and pick the one that the price action is most similar to. It's a game that they are playing with your mind, your money, and your expectations of what to strive for to be a good market participant. Real market participants have no reason to go 'on the record' because the only record they care about is the track record.“Any bounce should not travel much above the S&P 500 zone of 1940 – 1950 if this is indeed a 10% decline,” Mr. Saut wrote on Thursday. “My work is also showing more volatility for [Thursday] and [Friday] with a follow-through into next week.”
Here's a good one "my work is also showing more volatility for Thursday and Friday with a follow through into next week." What exactly does that mean? Your work predicts the future? Not only does he claim to predict the future with bold claims like 10% summer swoon but now he is pinpointing the future with the exact days that volatility will be expanding and that it will continue to into next week. This is literally impossible information. The equivalent is me saying that I am exiting a profitable position next Thursday. Even worse, this is the information that new traders see and think is possible to gain these kinds of insights.
When Mr. Saut made his 10% correction call last month, he said the long-term fundamentals of the rally remained in place and that the secular bull market still had several years left to run. But first, stocks were due for a substantial drop before notching another leg higher, he said at the time.Wonderful, now you are right in either direction whenever it may happen. Your 10% correction call goes poof in the midst of a large bull market? Oh but this is just long term fundamentals taking over, you can't fight the fundamentals right? Not to mention this entire article is turning into this guys predictions. No one with any experience gives a crap about this guy's predictions, this is aimed at the new traders and investors and that is why it makes me upset.
“My sense is that we have at least an appointment with the 1890 – 1900 level before ‘they’ can attempt to stage a meaningful rally attempt,” he said.Your sense? Are we using our special sauce sixth senses now to figure out the future? Appointment with 1900 before they can attempt to make an attempt? That is some rock solid advice, thanks man.
But at least in the short term, the market has struggled to regain the upward momentum it has exhibited throughout much of the past few years. And right now, there are few catalysts on the horizon to get the market back on track.Since that is how we analyze markets, we just wait for a quick one sided move and make assumptions based on that. Bulls haven't even tried to reverse trend yet, so where is this coming from? "There are few catalysts on the horizon to get the market back on track" That is the bottom line? That is the take away you want your readers taking to the market the next day? Or the lunch break at work? Lets not forget about that long term up trend we have had for 5 years plus. Or the various levels of support we still have below us. The market doesn't care about catalysts, it cares about the trend with supply/demand along the way.
I found this article by typing "stock market" into google and clicking the first link that came up. This is why no one in our society cares about the market and if they do they can't figure out what the hell is going on. Trend following is how main street can understand any market they want. It makes a lot more sense when you tell someone you can just follow the market instead of predicting it. As long as this crap is getting exposure though, there will be confusion.
Trade well,
Michael
