03-01-05 Watchlist Analysis

TLT: Bonds found buyers supporting price above break even and now looking at $130 resistance.  Watching 65m trend to support price through a reversal

Opportunity:  Holding swing points along 65m trend

03-01-15 Trade Plan

It was a pretty slow week in the indices with only a few names participating at a time.  The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are still holding their intraday trends for the time being.  Russell still has support from $120 to break even area and the NASDAQ has $106 area support.  These are very generous support areas for buyers, meaning they have plenty of room to step in between where we are trading now and the support.  A test of these support levels would break the intraday trends but if buyers can hold control above the supports then we may be set up for a new run.  That's what I'm looking at for the downside potential, upside potential would just be continuing to hold the trends.

02-22-15 Watchlist Analysis

TLT: Bonds are still playing around with break even on the year.  Holding break even would still be a higher low on the big picture.

Opportunity: Selling some premium while IV is still high.  I prefer using defined risk spreads especially while sellers still have the upper hand

02-22-15 Trade Plan

The markets closed on another great note this week as indices continue to allow for an environment where stocks can rally with the wind at their back.  Even the NASDAQ itself has been a fantastic trade holding all the swing points since the entry opportunity around $103-104.  During these times is when I am looking for great risk/reward long side trades during trends in individual stocks, so unless there is a fresh trade to take in the indices I have all the information I need out of it for right now.

02-15-15 Watchlist Analysis

Getting right into it...

TLT: Bonds are still in an interesting spot coming back into break even on the year with the previous low back near $124.  I think there will be buyers stepping back in from here to break even, and it's something I'll be looking to play on the first bounce.

Opportunity: Reversing intraday trend above YTD break even to continue bigger picture up trend.

02-15-15 Trade Plan

Markets had a great week finally after a long wait from people like me.  As I was saying last week the bulls needed to hold that previous supply area then get back above break even for the year to be in a good position for a new leg up.  That's exactly what we saw so clearly on Tuesday when it gapped above break even, tested it multiple times intraday, then went on to make a higher high and trigger many stocks.

Let's take a step back for a second though.  Have a look at this NASDAQ weekly chart.  The consolidation we just went through was one of the best resting periods we have had throughout this entire bull market (starting from 2013).  Since we took out the highs, it is now a higher low in the uptrend.  Now have a look at this view of the same weekly chart.  We are 10% away from all time highs in the NASDAQ, every other index made this milestone a long time ago.  I don't think the leading index is going to give up 10% shy of all time highs.  One more chart I want to share right here - Russell 2000 weekly.  This is just an absolutely beautiful accumulation pattern, I couldn't say this before since bulls weren't breaking out of it or holding a trend above $120 but now that they are starting to you have to take the whole context into account.  To finish this paragraph I'll say that not a soul knows what kind of year 2015 will be, but we can take a look at the longer term charts and see evidence of where we are.  For right now all I'm seeing is accumulation on the weekly charts and I wanted to share that with you all.

02-08-15 Watchlist Analysis

This will be the first post of a new part of the weekend review going specifically over names on the watch list.  Nothing will change in the trade plan, this is just an extension and I want to keep this one shorter.  Hopefully this can grow into something that benefits everyone.  I'll make tweaks to it as we go to be as efficient and streamlined as possible, similar to the plan.  I think to start off we can take a look at bonds, gold, and a few stocks.

TLT: Bonds have been in a daily uptrend since the start of 2014 and nothing has changed.  Quick intraday trends come then we see a pullback into a rising 50 day on the daily trend.  Right here bulls have a lot of room to work with after making all time highs, being well above break even, and the previous daily low all the way back at $123 (which is under break even).

Opportunity - buyers hold daily trend and reverse to start new intraday uptrend. nothing actionable yet

02-08-15 Trade Plan

Markets spent another week trying to go positive on the year and we continue to be in this $100-$105 NASDAQ range.  Bulls have done a good job holding price above the break down area at $100 but have yet to get an intraday trend going to leave the range.  Note we never saw any lower high below $100, so there was never a reason to look for an intraday down trend in the indices.  The Russell showed some strength this week and right now it is bumping against the $120 resistance/YTD break even.  I mentioned last week I need to see at least two indices get an intraday trend going to really start looking for bulls to move in and that is still the case.