Opportunity - buyers hold daily trend and reverse to start new intraday uptrend. nothing actionable yet
02-08-15 Watchlist Analysis
This will be the first post of a new part of the weekend review going specifically over names on the watch list. Nothing will change in the trade plan, this is just an extension and I want to keep this one shorter. Hopefully this can grow into something that benefits everyone. I'll make tweaks to it as we go to be as efficient and streamlined as possible, similar to the plan. I think to start off we can take a look at bonds, gold, and a few stocks.
TLT: Bonds have been in a daily uptrend since the start of 2014 and nothing has changed. Quick intraday trends come then we see a pullback into a rising 50 day on the daily trend. Right here bulls have a lot of room to work with after making all time highs, being well above break even, and the previous daily low all the way back at $123 (which is under break even).
Opportunity - buyers hold daily trend and reverse to start new intraday uptrend. nothing actionable yet
Opportunity - buyers hold daily trend and reverse to start new intraday uptrend. nothing actionable yet
02-08-15 Trade Plan
Markets spent another week trying to go positive on the year and we continue to be in this $100-$105 NASDAQ range. Bulls have done a good job holding price above the break down area at $100 but have yet to get an intraday trend going to leave the range. Note we never saw any lower high below $100, so there was never a reason to look for an intraday down trend in the indices. The Russell showed some strength this week and right now it is bumping against the $120 resistance/YTD break even. I mentioned last week I need to see at least two indices get an intraday trend going to really start looking for bulls to move in and that is still the case.
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02-01-15 Trade Plan
After this week's price action I think it's safe to say that the sentiment of the last post was a bit premature. That's fine as long as no one is digging in their heels and letting losers just hang out in the portfolio. Take the stops and move on. This is also why I always take what I call starter positions when I am first getting into trades (especially long side) because typically if a position is going to lose trend it does it on my first entry and I want that out of my portfolio with low exposure to it. As a trend builds so does my position size so long as it falls within my risk parameters with my trailing stops.
So let's have a look at what happened. First the SPY could not get positive on the year as break even acted as resistance once again. Then Tuesday the NASDAQ gapped down back below the break even. At this point all indices were negative on the year with no intraday trends, this is where we remain now. The mistake I made was not waiting for a better low above break even to develop for a trend to come out of this chop period.
So let's have a look at what happened. First the SPY could not get positive on the year as break even acted as resistance once again. Then Tuesday the NASDAQ gapped down back below the break even. At this point all indices were negative on the year with no intraday trends, this is where we remain now. The mistake I made was not waiting for a better low above break even to develop for a trend to come out of this chop period.
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01-25-15 Trade Plan
Even with the shortened trading week the bulls were able to take the NASDAQ positive on the year and take out the previous high. This puts the market in a much better environment for stocks to move higher so long as we can stay positive. It should be mentioned that no other indices were able to take out the previous high nor go positive on the year. To me that isn't as important as the price action in the NASDAQ because tech and healthcare are the leaders in this bull market. That's also why I tend to put focus on one index here each weekend because all I want to track is the leader and get the outperforming stocks on my watch list to trade.
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01-18-15 Trade Plan
Markets still remain stuck in a neutral chop period and negative on the year. One thing I keep pointing out on the NASDAQ is the skipping rock potential if we were to break below the $100 level. With each test of $100 we get a lower high and eventually if this continues that support gets too weak to hold price and it breaks through, like a rock skipping along the water. What would invalidate that is breaking the previous high from 1/9 which would also put it positive on the year. We will call this scenario A.
Bears best case is to hold price on the $100 level (below Thursday's high roughly), consolidate and build energy, then break support. Energy is rarely built for bears in this market though nor has trading short done me any good in the past two years, which is why I'm still tip toeing around shorts when the signs appear. I'd rather sell into strength with an intraday down trend below $100, even then the weekly trend is still well in tact and a full measured move down would still be a higher low on the weekly. This is scenario B. So those are the two scenarios for me, but for now I am still neutral on stocks.
Bears best case is to hold price on the $100 level (below Thursday's high roughly), consolidate and build energy, then break support. Energy is rarely built for bears in this market though nor has trading short done me any good in the past two years, which is why I'm still tip toeing around shorts when the signs appear. I'd rather sell into strength with an intraday down trend below $100, even then the weekly trend is still well in tact and a full measured move down would still be a higher low on the weekly. This is scenario B. So those are the two scenarios for me, but for now I am still neutral on stocks.
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