Let's welcome it in with a big round of applause, my first bitcoin post! Wonderful.. Well I figured it was a good time to make one since it is pulling back and keeping relatively decent market structure. Aside from talking about fundamentals and whether or not bitcoins have any intrinsic value, the technical targets I am seeing right now are right around $1500 and $2000 (technically $1900 but hey, this is bitcoin.. if it gets there why not $2000?). With the way bitcoin moves that honestly wouldn't surprise me to see that happen especially with this Fibonacci retracement (50% & 61.8%) that caught the price action quite nicely (which is also what is giving me the targets). As long as it can hold above that fib zone the probabilities of hitting those targets are fairly high. I don't trade it and don't want to trade it, but I do follow it and that is what I'm seeing right now.
You can see it also has a little trend-line breakout point kind of thing going on as well. What caught my attention is the reactions that the price action gets every time it comes into that fib zone. It's currently trying to form a bottoming type V shape pattern and it really needs to hold that and not break the structure. With this kind of pattern I would say that it needs to get going to the upside relatively soon or it could loose its momentum.
If someone held a gun to my head and said "Michael! Trade bitcoin right now and define your risk!!!" I would define it right around the $600 area which is more than enough room for a setup like this, but like I said I don't trade it and have no wishes to.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everybody,
-Michael
