| PERFORMANCE TABLE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
MARKET
|
1 WEEK PERFORMANCE
|
1 MONTH PERFORMANCE
|
YTD PERFORMANCE
|
| S&P-500 | 0.2% | 2.1% | 27.0% |
| NASDAQ 100 | 2.0% | 3.1% | 31.3% |
| Russell 2000 | 1.6% | 2.0% | 34.9% |
| Crude Oil | -2.2% | -5.5% | 1.0% |
| Gold | 0.6% | -7.0% | -25.3% |
| Euro Currency | 0.3% | -1.2% | 2.9% |
| 10 year note | -1.0% | -1.8% | -5.6% |
E-mini S&P-500:
The notable thing this week was obviously the distribution bars repeated printing on every day of this week ultimately printing a weekly distribution bar as well. I think this is very constructive for the pullback case especially with the VIX popping and this daily wedge we are currently in. If we do get a pullback going next week, $1750 is first up for a test of support. By that time, the 50 SMA will likely be there as well. Weekly chart is in some seriously overbought territory as well as the monthly chart. Both the weekly & monthly charts have RSI around 75, which is pretty high. If I bought the $1660 dip (on the index) I would be selling here, no doubt about it especially with the distribution on the daily to top it off.
Crude Oil:
Crude oil tried to get a bounce off of the $92 support level but just couldn’t sustain it. The fact that it couldn’t even wait for the next day for the sellers to come in should really be a tell. As well as the fact that it took the time to put in that consolidation and now it is breaking down below it. That $92 level is important for both the daily and weekly charts. The weekly chart is hanging onto trend support by a thread. To be fair, it does have an RSI divergence on the daily chart but price needs to show some buyers or I will be more than happy to ignore that. If price can get and hold back above that $93 level, I would start to consider that RSI as having some importance. The monthly chart does have the 50 SMA coming up right underneath price as well, so that may give some more support to that $92 level. Next week will be the tell for the direction.
Euro Currency:
Euro did a good job holding up but towards the end of the week sellers starting coming in. 1.3500 is still the level it needs to hold above. With the looks of that weekly chart price structure I still say it needs to consolidate for a bit. Bigger picture weekly chart structure looks extremely good for bulls and is about to have a classic 50/200 SMA cross to the upside, something to keep in mind. Everything still looks good though for now, though the ECB could ruin that in a millisecond. Monthly chart could definitely help out as well; big picture structure (consolidation after big move up), coming all the way off the lows last month, RSI above 50 is all in favor of the bulls.
Market Internals:
VIX is taking another shot at firing that Bollinger squeeze. Just like last time I am going to be watching the upper Bollinger band to see how price reacts to it. What I want to see is a drive into it and not stopping. If it does what it did last time and just hit the band and peter out well then it is likely the squeeze isn’t ready to fire yet. S&P stocks above 200 SMA is still above 82.5% level so it still can trigger a breakout discussed in the blog post “Looking Inside”. McClellan Oscillator is still coiling up in a wedge and Summation is turning up slightly due to the oscillator filling in some upside of that wedge. S&P price action was very compelling to the sell side this week though so really pay attention to those first two internals.
Economic Releases:
Lined up next week we got; ISM Manufacturing, International Trade Deficit, New Home Sales, GDP, & Employment numbers. Talk about a loaded board if I have ever seen one. Highlight is obviously the Employment numbers due to the Fed using them as their excuse to do QE. With the way we set up the distribution this week, I think next week we can see some fireworks. I sure hope so.
If you have any questions about why I changed my trend support or anything else, let me know in the comments.
Notable blogs from this week:
Trade well,
-Michael
